Background On December 3, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol briefly imposed martial law, leading to his indictment on insurrection charges. The trial is expected to last approximately six months. If convicted, Yoon could face life imprisonment or theoretically the death penalty (though the latter is considered unlikely by legal experts). The Constitutional Court is separately deciding whether to permanently remove Yoon from office, which would strip him of remaining presidential immunity.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Yoon Suk Yeol is convicted of insurrection charges in a South Korean court. The market will resolve NO if he is acquitted or if the charges are dropped. I will extend this market if need be until this case is resolved either way.

Considerations

• This is a highly polarized political situation with both supporters and opponents engaging in protests

• Insurrection is one of the few crimes for which a South Korean president does not have immunity

• The Constitutional Court's decision on removing Yoon from office could impact the criminal proceedings

• The outcome may be influenced by evolving political dynamics and public sentiment