Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official announcement of TikTok's sale is made on or before December 31, 2025. The announcement must come from TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, or a credible acquiring entity, and be reported by reputable news outlets such as Reuters, CNN, and The New York Times. If no such announcement is made by the end of 2025, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

In 2024, the U.S. government passed legislation requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok's U.S. operations due to national security concerns. The initial deadline for this divestiture was January 19, 2025, but it has been extended multiple times, with the current deadline set for September 17, 2025. ByteDance is reportedly developing a standalone U.S. version of TikTok, internally referred to as "M2," to facilitate a potential sale. This new app is expected to launch in U.S. app stores on September 5, 2025, and will operate independently from the global platform. (reuters.com)

Several American investors, including Oracle, Blackstone, and Andreessen Horowitz, have expressed interest in acquiring TikTok's U.S. operations. Negotiations are ongoing, and any sale would require approval from both U.S. and Chinese authorities. President Donald Trump has indicated that discussions with China regarding the sale are set to begin soon. (reuters.com)

I will not bet on this market.