This market will resolve YES if current Tropical Storm Lee develops into a category 5 hurricane, otherwise NO. Resolution source is the national hurricane center. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
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@Will58c3 No. That’s not how it works. When I posted, few models forecasted it, then they all updated based on the evidence. You can see the updates to the models moving fairly quickly over the course of two days. No one ‘knew’.
@NicoDelon not 'knew' but they had better estimates than those spaghetti graphs e.g. accuweather was predicting a category 5. twitter had many meteorologists predicting a category 5.
@NicoDelon Listen bub. I'm ranked 25 silver I don't need to explain myself to the likes of you. just kidding.
Changing topics, you wouldn't happen to know if/how often NOAA would reclassify hurricane strength after the fact. Like with respect to Idalia, could they downgrade it to a category 3?
The NHC releases a report in April/May. That’s where they reclassified Ian as a 5 (before landfall). So that’s when I would expect a potential reclassification to be made public.