BACKGROUND

In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court (Alta Corte disciplinare). The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The reformed Article 104 provides that lay members of the two new CSMs are drawn by lot from a list that Parliament in joint session compiles "by election." The constitutional text uses the singular "un elenco" (one list), suggesting a single list for both councils. However, the implementing law could create two separate lists, one for each CSM.

Note: the Alta Corte disciplinare (Article 105) also has lay members drawn from a parliamentary list, but with different qualification requirements (20 years of professional experience vs. 15 years for CSM lay members). Because of this constitutional difference, the Alta Corte is very likely to have its own separate list. This market therefore focuses only on whether the two CSMs share a list, not on the Alta Corte.

A single shared list means one pool of lay candidates for both councils, which increases the effective randomness of the sortition (larger pool relative to seats). Separate lists mean smaller pools, each potentially more controlled by the parliamentary majority.

QUESTION

Will the implementing legislation provide a single parliamentary list from which lay members for both the CSM giudicante and the CSM requirente are drawn by lot?

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

Resolves YES if the implementing law published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale provides for one single list (elenco) compiled by Parliament from which lay members for both CSMs are drawn by sortition.

Resolves NO if the implementing law provides for two separate lists (one for each CSM), or if the structure is ambiguous but functionally creates distinct pools for each council, or if no implementing law addressing this matter has been published by December 31, 2028.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force.

NOTE

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.