BACKGROUND

In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

A key mechanism in the reform is how lay members (non-magistrates) of the two new CSMs are selected. The reformed Article 104 of the Constitution provides that one-third of each CSM's members are drawn by lot from a list compiled by Parliament. However, the Constitution does not specify a minimum length for this list. If Parliament makes the list barely longer than the number of seats, the lottery becomes a formality and Parliament effectively controls the selection. If the list is much longer, the lottery is genuine.

QUESTION

Will the implementing legislation require the parliamentary list(s) from which lay CSM members are drawn by lot to contain at least 3 times as many names as the number of lay seats to be filled?

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

If the implementing law provides a single parliamentary list for both CSMs: resolves YES if the minimum list length is at least 3 times the total number of lay CSM seats to be filled by sortition from that list.

If the implementing law provides separate lists for each CSM: resolves YES if, for each list, the minimum length is at least 3 times the number of lay seats to be filled from that specific list.

Resolves NO if the implementing law specifies a lower minimum, specifies no minimum, or if no implementing law addressing this matter has been published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale by December 31, 2028.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force.

NOTE

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.