BACKGROUND

In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court (Alta Corte disciplinare). The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

One concern raised about the reform is that the new High Disciplinary Court could be used to pressure magistrates who investigate powerful political figures. This market tests whether such a scenario materializes. Note: the occurrence of such a case would not by itself prove institutional capture -- the disciplinary proceeding could be entirely legitimate. But it is a data point worth tracking.

QUESTION

By December 31, 2032, will a disciplinary proceeding before the new Alta Corte disciplinare be formally initiated against a magistrate who, within the 24 months prior to the initiation of the proceeding, has been involved in a criminal case concerning a sitting member of the Italian Government (Presidente del Consiglio or Ministro) or a sitting member of Parliament?

"Involved in a criminal case" means:

- For a prosecutor (PM): having directed or conducted investigations, or having represented the prosecution at trial.

- For a judge: having issued a pre-trial custody order, presided over a preliminary hearing, or presided over the trial.

"Sitting" means the politician holds office at the time the disciplinary proceeding is initiated.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2032, the formal initiation of such a disciplinary proceeding is confirmed by:

- Official acts or communications from the Alta Corte disciplinare, the Ministry of Justice, or the Procuratore Generale presso la Corte di Cassazione (who has the power to initiate disciplinary action); OR

- Reporting by at least three major Italian or international news sources (e.g., ANSA, Reuters, Corriere della Sera, La Repubblica, Il Sole 24 Ore).

"Formally initiated" means that the disciplinary action has been formally brought before the Alta Corte (not merely that a complaint has been filed or that an informal inquiry is underway).

Resolves NO if no such case is confirmed by that date.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force, or if the Alta Corte disciplinare has not yet been established and begun operating by December 31, 2032.

NOTE

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.