Will Bitcoin go up-only until halving? (monthly close)
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May 2
16%
chance

Will every month close higher than the previous month until halving? The last month that must close higher is the one when the halving occur (likely April 2024).

Month close: the last day of the month, 12:00 am UTC (same as CoinMarketCap uses for monthly candles)

Price source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ (regular view)

In other words, every candle on this view must be green until halving:

Get Ṁ200 play money
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April is back to green!

bought Ṁ200 YES from 60% to 74%
bought Ṁ100 NO from 74% to 60%
bought Ṁ100 NO

@roma what level do you see it has to beat? I have it up but not by much, certainly not justifying 74%.

@deagol Whatever coinmarketcap's close of March is. I also see it just barely green, my trades are not quite rational in this particular market :)

@roma thanks, so 71333.65 as seen in March candle and confirmed in historical data:

@roma I see you spent $1.7 quadrillion, no wait, quintillion? not quite rational indeed 😂

predicts YES

January made it. 3 more month to go.

predicts YES

January is green rn, just needs to stay green

predicts YES

November is green. So far so good