What text will Trump tweet next? (Levenshtein distance)
91
7.6kṀ20k
resolved Dec 31
ResolvedN/A
22%Other
9%
Merry Christmas!
8%
teainetoreatinothereateontheinateoreatinereateone
5%
This has been greatest fraud election America Joe
4%
teasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateonesteasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateones
3%
teasinetorseatinothereasteontheinsateoreatinsereateones
3%
thankyou
3%
Donaldjtrump
3%
Winner!
2%
ea election interference ea no crime ea democrats eaeaeaea
2%
tremeseriareataintemeasericatreataintseriareataintmeaseriareatain
2%
Blow my trumpet!!!!!
2%
truth make social is donald trump again election the joe great america usa has
2%
The
1.9%
Let's make Esperanto the official language of the United States
1.9%
Rationalussy
1.6%
heoreateonithereatinateain
1.5%
This has been the greatest way to make a brave tweet guess based on the comments of this country I hope for more election news and winning make America great again
1.4%
I am not a crook
1.4%
aerio make america great again aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio aerio joe biden aerio aerio

TLDR: What option will be most similar to the next Trump's tweet?

If Twitter/X user "@realDonaldTrump" posts again in 2023, I will:

  • Take the post text,

  • Remove all links,

  • Make all characters lowercase (for example "A" becomes "a"),

  • Remove all characters other than a-z.

  • If there's no text remaining, I will discard the post and wait for the next one.

  • If there's text remaining, I will calculate the Levenshtein distance between each answer and the text of the post after all transformations.

  • I will resolve the market to the answer with the lowest Levenshtein distance.

If there's a tie between multiple answers, I will resolve to all of them with equal proportion.

If no eligible post is created before close, I will resolve to N/A.

Important caveats:

  • Only text written by the user "@realDonaldTrump" counts, for example a repost without any additional text is not eligible. Replies count. Any other types of posts count as long as there's text written by "@realDonaldTrump".

  • Text in images/videos/sound doesn't count.

  • Answers added after an eligible post is published will be ignored! Do not add an answer after it's known!

  • I will never resolve to "Other" because there will always be some answer with the lowest distance even if that distance is very high.

Other caveats, just in case:

  • I will apply the same transformation/normalisation to the submitted answers before calculating the distance. The formula: levenshtein_distance(normalize(answer_option), normalize(post_text)).

  • If two answers have 0 distance between each other acording to the formula above, the one added later will be ignored. Basically, don't add "CoVfefe" if "covfefe" already exists.

  • This market ignores any rebrands or tweet/post/xeet/etc technicalities.

  • If the account is hacked or Trump didn't write the post himself, that doesn't matter as long as the post is created by "@realDonaldTrump".

  • If the post is deleted before this market is resolved, it becomes not eligible.

  • If the post is edited, the first original version will be used. But if the first version has no usable text, the next one will be considered and so on.

  • The text is taken from the post's page on Twitter/X for web (twitter.com). For example: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1347569870578266115 . Just in case other apps display text slightly diferently.

  • Other users' mentions via "@" remain in the text even though they're technically links.

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