What is the smallest range that contains the second number of Plasma Ballin's Cover's paradox market?
10
closes Sep 29
0 - 100
49%
-100 - 100
16%
0 - 1000
22%
-1000 - 1000
5%
-∞ - +∞
8%

Resolves to the smallest range that contains the unknown number. All ranges are inclusive at both ends (for example, 0 - 100 contains 0 and 100)

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-100 - 100 and -1000 - 1000 both imply that the secret number is negative (since otherwise it would be in the smaller ranges -100 - 100 or -1000 to 1000), which means that the linked market would resolve YES. 0 - 1000 implies that the secret number is >100 (otherwise it would resolve to 0 - 100), in which case the linked market resolves NO. The other two options wouldn't tell you which way the market resolves.

4 replies

Right, to be honest I'm not sure this market helps.

One of the ways I was going to use it is this:

If we assume that for psychological reasons you chose the numbers at random in the 0 - 100 range, and we know that one of the numbers is 29, then the probability of the second number being smaller is 29%.

I was going to just ask about the 0 - 100 range, but then decided to add other ranges in case they could be useful.

@Roma It is based on the psychological theory that I think the first option is worth 50%.

@JosephNoonan Ah, and just like you said, if many people think you would make the other number negative, it's a reason to give YES a higher chance in the main market.

@Roma That's not a bad way of trying to figure it out. But of course there are competing possibilities for what psychological reasons I might have to choose certain numbers.

David Bolinbought Ṁ25 of 0 - 100 YES

I just moved the 1st option to 50% and I think that it is its fair value.