1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ77 | |
| 2 | Ṁ18 | |
| 3 | Ṁ15 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
-100 - 100 and -1000 - 1000 both imply that the secret number is negative (since otherwise it would be in the smaller ranges -100 - 100 or -1000 to 1000), which means that the linked market would resolve YES. 0 - 1000 implies that the secret number is >100 (otherwise it would resolve to 0 - 100), in which case the linked market resolves NO. The other two options wouldn't tell you which way the market resolves.
Right, to be honest I'm not sure this market helps.
One of the ways I was going to use it is this:
If we assume that for psychological reasons you chose the numbers at random in the 0 - 100 range, and we know that one of the numbers is 29, then the probability of the second number being smaller is 29%.
I was going to just ask about the 0 - 100 range, but then decided to add other ranges in case they could be useful.
@JosephNoonan Ah, and just like you said, if many people think you would make the other number negative, it's a reason to give YES a higher chance in the main market.
@Roma That's not a bad way of trying to figure it out. But of course there are competing possibilities for what psychological reasons I might have to choose certain numbers.