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@DavidChee I would [admittedly selfishly] argue this is not a non-predictive market since it is predicting an external event (even though it has a self-referential component).

@Thomas42 This market aligns with what we have previously marked as non-predictive

This was an interesting experiment! Didn't expect it to gravitate to 50% so much.

Here is the secret message: "The random number is 73. Good luck!".

73 > 40, so this resolves to NO.

@roma That was at least partially due to me not reading the market carefully enough and being convinced that 50% was the optimum

Woops

@jonsimon It seems like buying towards 50% always gives you a slight advantage in how price of a share is calculated, as @NiciusB pointed out. So perhaps your strategy was solid, you just wasn't lucky

@roma yeah I think it was just luck. I bought towards 50% but since I didn't want to take the 50/50 chance, I slowly sold my big position with limit orders

@Thomas42 Uhhh explain?

@jonsimon I was hoping to push it even further to zero, but I also wanted to go to bed so didn't want to wait another hour. Got lucky in the end.

If someone knows how the Acceleration bot works, and what would make it sell its big position there might be a way to make mana from that

Whatever the last trade in this market is, it is guaranteed to be +EV. Let's go bots

The idea is that the market always shows its probability to resolve to YES.

That is the idea of any prediction market, but you went further than anyone and made it a rigid fact.

@KongoLandwalker This is only true when the market is closed for trading, otherwise you have to take the expectation of further trades into account

Interesting that most people bet on YES. I wonder whether this is because of my own initial random bet.

@roma I haven't done the math but I think the further from 50% you go the least expected value the bet has, because of share price being non-linear

@NiciusB Yeah, possible. I don't understand well how manifold calculates the price one buys share for

Damn you, bots.

Why are you trying to keep it at 50%? The higher it is the higher the chance to resolve to YES, and the lower it is the higher the chance to resolve to NO. What is so special about 50%?

@roma so if I understand correctly, if I buy no all the way to 0%, this is basically free money unless someone else buys Yes, right?

@Thomas42 Yep

No rational reason to trade

This is probably not true. Maybe only for the very last trade

I will place a bet of 50 mana on YES or NO at random, and will not make any further trades (including selling this one).