
By 2025, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?
106
closes 2025
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ20 +101.0%
New probability
50%
Get Ṁ500 play money
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firstuserherepredicts NO
@dggL on my markets for 2026 and 2030, the idea is : having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing. As a thumb rule, if the AI system was responsible for at least one third of the song production process is what i'm considering for it being AI-generated

firstuserherebought Ṁ100 of NO
So, either a song released in 2023 or 2024 is top 100 by the year end? This market seems way too high to me
3 replies
dmayhem93bought Ṁ15 of YES
@firstuserhere 50% seems right to me, 2 years ago SOTA image generation was still GANs


firstuserherepredicts NO
@dmayhem93 that's okay. This is more of a popularity question, not achieving a new :SOTA



@firstuserhere Note that there is a gap of 2 years in the market question. One is about 2023 and 2024-year end, and one is for 2 more years.

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