I hope this will have a simple resolution.
Here are some criteria for edge cases that could come up:
It doesn't matter if this is a temporary or permanent assignment.
If there is a transition on July 1, I'll resolve to the leadership at the end of the day.
I hope to resolve to a single name, but if there are co-leaders or a similar situation, I may resolve to a %.
"No one" is mostly to cover extreme cases, like the entire team is dissolved. I'll also use this if it's truly unknown after some honest investigation. Even if there is no formal leader, I will try to resolve to whoever is leading the team in practical terms, even if that's a relatively low-level staff member who's taken over operations temporarily.
1,000
3.00Some interesting grey area has opened up.
If things stay more or less as they are today, we need to know "does the Superalignment team still exist" along with "who leads it". If I have to make that decision to resolve this market, I'm going to lean heavily on the original "Introducing Superalignment" blog post and compare its main points to the team that exists on July 1.
Today's "Safety and Security Committee" post makes it seem like more changes are coming, but likely not before the close date.
https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/
https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/
Axios and Bloomberg are reporting that superalignment is moving under Schulman: https://www.axios.com/2024/05/28/openai-safety-new-model