Will Houthi attacks cause any injuries or deaths in the Red Sea ships in the first half of 2024?
25
470แน€3190
resolved Mar 6
Resolved
YES

Resolves Yes if anyone on a ship is reported injured or dead in the Red Sea due to a weapon fired by the Houthis by 11:59 PM June 30, 2024 Eastern Time.

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Spice_N_Wolf boughtแน€139YES

@Spice_N_Wolf Nicely done! Any reason you bought in three increments rather than one pile?

@GazDownright Bots provide liquidity when you make large orders.

@riverwalk3 How so? ๐Ÿค”

@GazDownright Some users on this side have programmed bots to trade against large orders. Look at Michael Bot Labratory

@riverwalk3 Hmm, I see cough cheaterquants cough so by betting incrimentally the bots basically give you free mana?

@GazDownright actually it was by accident? ๐Ÿ˜… spent the mana on hand, then sold assets that had basically run their life and spent that, then took a loan

@GazDownright Usually making a large bet to move the market a lot is a mistake. The bots are highly profitable.

@riverwalk3 that's because the bots are programmed to bet against users who are new to the website or don't have that much profit

@riverwalk3 Mistake because it devalues your own bet, or?

@GazDownright Usually the market mean reverts unless the probability of the event has actually changed.

@riverwalk3 I see. As for this particular case, would you say it made sense to buy as much as you could until the market was at its new probabilty, i.e., near certainty?

Probably YES but waiting for official news sources to confirm.

2 NAVY sailors are reported missing on the same night, between Somalia and Yemen while doing an operation intercepting shipments from Iran to Yemen. There is possible casualty laundering here, but unless there is any official confirmation that these deaths were due to Houthi counterfire this will not count.

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