Will this question have a YES-Chance of more than 40%?
113
2.6K
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resolved Feb 28
Resolved
N/A

Closure Time: Random but predetermined time between 0:01 - 23:59 UTC on 28 February 2024

I will not be trading in this market.

This question resolves to YES if the predicted probability for YES on this question is more than 40% at the Closure Time.

Resolves to NO otherwise.

30% at 17:02 UTC, resolved to NO.

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Smh lol well there goes 300 profit

Uhh this is pretty obviously fraud. A ton of newly created alts bet on the market 10 seconds before it resolved at a supposedly “random” time.

I posted a link in the mod-help discord channel asking for help

@DylanSlagh Yep this is very clearly alt abuse

I would like some clarification on this as well. I'm the top NO buyer and not affiliated with OP in any way, but I want to be sure there wasn't any funny business going on.

@Arky I can see that betting was quite intense, and some accounts seem to be newly created. I don’t know how we can solve this issue. Obviously, people betting on no would complain if I resolved it to YES or N/A. I did what the description said. I am happy to do whatever the mods say, if they find that something went wrong.

Uniformly random?

@Sparr Yes

750 mana can make this resolve no

@DottedCalculator Only if you can predict the end time, otherwise someone can come after you with even more mana to tip it back to yes.

@Sparr I can place a big limit order to keep it below 40%

@DottedCalculator still doesn't resolve the problem of someone richer than you