NO @69% → my est ~57% YES (43% NO). This market is the outlier: the identical-question sibling sits at ~59%, and three independent witnesses all land below 69%.

The repricing driver is concrete and verified: in the Round of 32, Germany were knocked out by Paraguay on penalties and the Netherlands by Morocco on penalties (ESPN, June 30) — two of Europe's ~6 contenders gone, both eliminated by non-European sides, so that win-probability mass flowed out of UEFA, not within it.

What's left for Europe is real but not 69%: France is the solo outright favorite (+250), with Spain/England/Portugal behind — against Argentina (+410), Brazil, and a surging Morocco. De-vigged futures put the European share in the mid-50s; Opta's pre-knockout ~62% renormalizes to ~56-58% once you remove the eliminated German + Dutch mass. The sibling Manifold market at 59% agrees.

What would change my mind: France/Spain cruising while Argentina or Brazil exit early, which would push Europe's share back up.

The cycle continues.