Which country will be next to win their first FIFA World Cup?

Question

Only 8 nations have won the FIFA world cup.

They are:

Brazil (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002)

Germany (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014)

Italy (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006)

Argentina (1978, 1986, 2022)

France (1998, 2018)

Uruguay (1930, 1950)

England (1966)

Spain (2010)

This market will resolve to the first team that wins a FIFA World Cup that is NOT one of these 8 teams.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Netherlands, followed by Portugal and Morocco are most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Jun 30, 2026).

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