Tiger Zhang is a first-year undergraduate at MIT currently taking 18.905 (Algebraic Topology I). He started problem set 1 two days before the deadline, only finishing two-thirds of the problem set before the deadline. Will he finish all of problem set 2 before the deadline?
This problem set is due on Thursday, March 5th in class (11am). The problem set is given below, where you can find [Miller] at https://math.mit.edu/~hrm/papers/lectures-905-906.pdf.
This market resolves YES if Tiger submits a full solution to each problem in this problem set to the professor in class on 3/5. These solutions do not have to be correct, as long as Tiger genuinely believes that the solution he has submitted is correct at the time of submission.
Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Due to a snow day cancellation, the professor has made the following changes to problem set 2:
Problems in sections 15 and 16 have been removed
Problem 12.2(b) has been updated (the original problem was incorrect)
The market will resolve based on the updated problem set with these changes.
Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The problem set due date has been changed from March 3rd to Thursday, March 5th. The market will resolve YES if Tiger submits a full solution to each problem in the problem set to the professor in class on 3/5 (instead of 3/3).
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@traders I believe I owe you all an explanation.
Tiger finished the problem set around 2am. However, this class requires that solutions be submitted on paper during class on the day that it is due.
Tiger went to sleep and woke up after the start of class because his alarm didn't ring. He planned to come at the end of class to submit his homework. Unfortunately, the professor ended class ten minutes early and left the classroom before Tiger walked in. As this means that the problem set was not submitted to the professor in class, the market resolved NO on a technicality.
(He immediately emailed the professor about the situation and the professor still decided to accept the online version of his submission.)
@traders Tiger has not submitted a problem set yet, but the professor has permitted submissions up until the end of lecture at 12:30. The market will resolve by then.
@rewind YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH YAEH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@traders The professor changed the problem set due date to Thursday, March 5th. Accordingly, the condition for the market to resolve YES has changed to the following:
Tiger submits a full solution to each problem in this problem set to the professor in class on 3/5 (formerly 3/3).
As a result of the snow day at MIT today, the lecture for 18.905 was cancelled today. Accordingly, the professor removed the problems in sections 15 and 16. In addition, the professor has updated problem 12.2(b); the problem is incorrect as stated.
The problem set has been updated here.
@jatloe Tiger has bet YES in an attempt to motivate himself to finish this problem set.