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MANIFOLD
Will this market appear on a mug?
23
Ṁ1kṀ1.7k
Jul 5
26%
chance
6

Resolves YES if a portrayal of this market is printed on the side of a mug AND it is available for purchase in the official manifold mana shop.

See also: https://manifold.markets/Gen/mana-merch-shop-which-designs-will

  • Update 2026-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Will resolve NO at the scheduled close date, unless there are credible reports that a mug is in production.

Market context
Fun
Meta-markets
Whale Watching
Mana Merch Shop
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when is resolution time for NO?

@Stralor will resolve NO at scheduled close date, unless there are credible reports that a mug is in production etc.

If I was going to put this market on a mug, I'd probably resolve it YES for the screenshot. I think it makes more sense if the mug has resolved YES instead of showing a % chance? Idk, maybe it could be miscalibrated ..

@Gen if this is going on a mug it's gotta go hockey-stick

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Gen Let's bet accordingly

@Gen The solution is to announce that it will go on the mug, then the market can go to 100% and be resolved, all before the mug is manufactured

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