Insider Coinflip
29
1kαΉ€568
Jan 11
50%
chance

I have already tossed a fair (virtual) coin and recorded the result. At market close, it resolves YES if it was heads, NO if it was tails.

I have also selected a timestamp uniformly at random between 1 day from now, and 6 days from now (market duration is 7 days).

At the pre-selected timestamp (or near enough if I happen to be asleep or whatever), I will select a holder at random to be the "insider" (see footnote for precise method). I will DM that user the result of the coinflip.

I will not bet in this market. I will not sell info, take bribes, or answer questions about who the "insider" may or may not be, etc. etc.

Precommit hash: cbe2ba0a741d526098e3244a14ec084b9ca3e75b254c76c7450a8808385f1a00

(at market close I will publish a text file with the coin toss result, timestamp, and 128-bit integer n that hashes to this sha256 result)

User selection:
I'll make a list of all holders (both YES and NO), sort them alphabetically (by utf8 codepoints), and select the user at index n modulo the list length.

  • Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bot accounts are not eligible to be selected as the insider and will be excluded from the list during the selection process.

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@KirkPopelas do you consider yourself to be a bot

They are removing dms Jan 9

@spiderduckpig Ooo, good catch.

They can take our DMs, but they can't take our unlisted posts.

@spiderduckpig If the preselected timestamp comes after DMs have been disabled, I will attempt to contact the insider via other means, and if that fails then I will select another insider (index n+1). If I am unable to successfully contact any candidate insiders prior to the end of the market it will resolve N/A.

bought αΉ€50 YES

Basically the insider is going to make a bunch of mana and for rest it's a coin flip?

@andri There's lots of fun emergent possibilities here though. Will the insider not go all in at first to hide their status so they can find counterparties? Will people pretend to be the insider in order to manipulate the market? Etc

Oh, clarification, bot accounts are not eligible to be the insider, I'll exclude them from the list at selection time.

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