This market is about whether I will leave the house before 11 a.m. and stay outside for at least 15 minutes every day (*with a few exemptions) from tomorrow, 10. February 2025, until 31. December 2025. It serves as a commitment device to help me build a consistent morning routine while allowing flexibility for comfort and unforeseen circumstances.

Rules:

1. Baseline Rule: I must leave the house before 11 a.m. and stay outside for at least 15 minutes.

2. Joker Rule: If I go to the gym before 10 a.m., I earn a "joker." Each joker allows me to skip one day without penalty.

3. Exemptions

• I'm exempt if any of the following apply:

  • Health Issues: I am physically ill or injured.

  • Severe Weather: Conditions such as sleet, heavy downpour, or snowstorm make it unsafe or unreasonable to go outside.

  • Obligations: I have an appointment or commitment (e.g. an online seminar, landlord visit, important phone call) that prevents me from leaving before 11 a.m..

Additional notes:

• I'm starting this market with a broken elbow. Rule 3 applies until I get rid of the plaster, but I'll still try to get out of the house before 11 a.m. as often as possible.

• I will not bet on this market.