Will I exercise every single day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)

Question

This is a commitment device market about maintaining  a baseline of physical activity from July 1 through July 31.

YES if I complete all daily targets within the timeframe. Daily target: EITHER 25+ minutes of jogging, cycling, swimming or stationary bike OR 50+ minutes of taking a walk outside.

NO i f I miss a single day for any reason whatsoever.

Ṁ10 Bonus: Every unique human trader gets a one-time Ṁ10 bonus at market close.

Notes: Reduced minimums for July because of heat. Thanks for participating. ❤

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (3 traders, as of Jul 1, 2026).

Related questions