Will the Duopoly fall by EOY 2027?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ302028
37%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Personal judgement on whether Polymarket and Kalshi are no longer the "only" two PM exchanges by EOY 2027.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026
GOOG reaches $600 by EOY 2026?
6% chance
Will one of the Big Four airlines go bankrupt, be acquired, or cease operations before EOY 2026?
16% chance
Will Defunctland be Defunct by EOY 2029?
58% chance
S&P-500 EOY 2026
7,781
Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?
15% chance
Will Alphabet divest from Anthropic by EOY?
4% chance
Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
15% chance
Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)
30% chance
Will a company replace Google's dominant market position by 2028?
25% chance