https://apnews.com/article/mormon-church-shooting-michigan-dcb79ee701b0b8076bf73e30e10ba2b7
Will resolve depending on:
-Shooter has reliable sources (family, friends) who describe them as being of a certain political lean
-Social media posts, writings, etc. show political lean
-Otherwise clear support of a specific party or ideology
Will resolve to 'indiscernible' if:
-Strange, mixed politics that don't lean one way or the other
-I personally can't make heads or tails of what their politics are
-Too many conflicting reports when the market resolves
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The family didn't take down their Facebook pages, so there's plenty of pictures of him, including clear indicators of his politics. He voted, and if you look at his shirt, I think you can tell who got his vote.
I'm Mormon, and here's my take from experience:
Theres a high chance that this is an evangelical who somehow believes murder was an acceptable option. In this case the lean would be right-wing but the cause wouldn't be political.
There are some ex-mormons who could do something but those can be both on the right or left. (Ex-Mormons tend to be the opposite of a very center-right/right church, so this would more likely be a leftist but not by much) And not a political cause
Finally, the LDS church is much more vocal about issues on LGBT and abortion. It is a possibility that the shooter was angered by these positions. This would be a leftist with a left-leaning motivation.
This is just a take on what I see, let me know if I get something wrong.
I think the probability for right-wing is high but not 95%. Am I missing something?
@Mrdudeguy We can't forget how sad and terrible this is, no matter how you agree or disagree with their views human life is so valuable.
@Mrdudeguy confirming that this is almost certainly not an ex-mormon. as a start, most are just quietly saddened folk who feel let down by their families, certainly not the bloodthirsty nor gun-loving type.
@Mrdudeguy I think people are going from pure vibes (myself included). The pictures of his car rammed into the church has two big American flags in the back of the pickup, and the photo that's been released of him is a hunting pic of him in full camo. 95% might be a bit high, but the vibe is absolutely there
@Marnix was just editing my comment to note the exact same thought—frankly I can’t see a world where the person depicted fits either of those alternatives
@fluttershy I understand that. My point is that his opinions may have changed. We also don't know if what we've seen so far is indicative of something else.
For example, we associate often using American flags as a right-leaning thing but some groups on the left use it.
I think this guy is most likely right leaning, but there's a chance (maybe 10%?) That this is indecernable.
Is there a chance this has to do with the Charlie Kirk shooting? He may have wrongfully assumed the shooter is Mormon even though all accounts Tyler robinson seems ex-mormon.
@Mrdudeguy that was my cautious guess, I couldn’t imagine otherwise what a motive would be that would inspire this specifically at this moment.
@Mrdudeguy FWIW, my gut reaction (before any information came out) was that this was most likely related to LGBT issues (hence my market on the shooter being trans-identifying, which appears likely to be false). It doesn't seem like an ex-mormon. Even the most hateful ex-mormon would realize that these types of incidents merely reinforce LDS viewpoints and sympathy, as there's a lot of focus on persecution in their historical narrative.
@MaxE They're merely getting more reports, and you probably don't usually pay attention to this phenomenon. Actually, there have been notably fewer shootings than last year at this time. If by usual you mean going back anyway; it's been a more notable month in 2025, that's true. However, 2025 is the most peaceful year mass shooting wise since 2018.
