Will the 30-year US Treasury par yield reach 5.25% before October 1, 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if the U.S. Treasury publishes a 30-year Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate of at least 5.25% for any date on or before September 30, 2026. Otherwise resolves NO.

Use the latest official value if a daily rate is revised.

Primary source: U.S. Treasury interest-rate statistics. The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 64% chance (3 traders, as of Aug 21, 2026).

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