[PROP BETS] New US-Iran Peace Talks
7
Ṁ1.5kṀ836Dec 31
75%
Trump launches new strikes on Iran before any deal is signed
66%
Trump posts calling a deal "the greatest" before it's actually signed
63%
Trump explicitly says he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for it
59%
Trump declares the MOU "over" again before a final deal
55%
Jared Kushner participates in talks
55%
Iran charges tolls or fees on Strait of Hormuz shipping
55%
Multinational body created to govern the Strait
48%
Iran agrees to IAEA inspector access to nuclear sites
45%
Formal reconstruction fund for Iran is established
41%
US lifts any sanctions on Iran before 2027
37%
Israel publicly endorses a US-Iran agreement
28%
Strait of Hormuz fully reopened to commercial shipping by Oct 1
18%
Iran agrees to zero uranium enrichment
16%
New Iranian Supreme Leader is named before a deal is finalized
12%
Talks actually begin on Monday, August 4
Just in case anyone asks, since I may add new prop bets since the market opened, the questions that are "within X days" are starting from the day the prop bet was added.
I reserve the right to N/A the market to adjust liquidity in the first 10 minutes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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