Will prerat make it to vibecamp 3?
Will prerat make it to vibecamp 3?
8
150Ṁ3122026
51%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I went to vibecamp 1 but not 2. Both times there was some uncertainty beforehand about whether I would actually be able to make it.
Resolves YES if I make it to vibecamp 3 (even just part of it).
Resolves NO if I don't show up for the whole of vibecamp 3, or if vibecamp 3 doesn't happen by Jan 1, 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Conditional on me going to Vibecamp this year, will I be glad that I went all things considered?
70% chance
Juniper gets laid at Vibecamp?
68% chance
Will Qiaochu Yuan attend Vibecamp 2025?
51% chance
If I [Jose Luis Ricon] go to Vibecamp 2025, will I enjoy it?
81% chance
Will there be a Vibecamp in 2025?
96% chance
Will there be a Vibecamp in 2027?
58% chance
Will there be a Vibecamp in 2026?
85% chance
Will Razib Khan attend vibecamp 2025 or 2026?
45% chance
Will I go to VibeCamp this year
50% chance