I will resolve this market to 2/3 of the value predicted by this market when it closes.
1,000
3.00
Interesting. Bad time for me to be present but
A last second bet of 193 on higher pushes price up to 42 which then resolves at 28. Such a person will have paid various prices from 8.6 to 42 which I assume average about 25. So it seems like a last second better can make a profit pushing it up. Seems fairly close so probably safer and more profit in pushing it down. Pushing up may seem fairly anti-social but can you rule it out? A bot programmer maybe? or someone who finds in funny? or ... ?
@ChristopherRandles it seems to me last second bets are useless, because the question is about average. I think it is all-market-life avarage.
@KongoLandwalker according to the descriptions its about closing price, not some time-average.
@ChristopherRandles I think you are right. At least if we can trust the preview. The average price would be 20 for such a buyer. Interestingly, that does not happen when I sell my shares for a value of 336. That means the house subsidies a "HIGHER" bet in such a market really strongly and not my sale of "LOWER" bets. And I guess that the "LOWER" betters do not get a 72% part of this subsidy even though it resolves at 28%, so we would make a loss.
@LeonBohnmann The 343 I got out were so much more than the 193 you proposed, and the price is still so low that nobody would make a loss on instant close.
@LeonBohnmann i think my interpretation is the only consistent. It "resolves when it closes", but resolves to the average number predicted.
In your interpretation what will be the average? The average of the single number? Why would the word "average" be used then?
@KongoLandwalker There are many types of average. In this case it seems the closing price of the market is a form of average between those that think it should be higher and those that think it should be lower.
This seems much less of a stretch than "to 2/3 of the value predicted by this market when it closes" having a different meaning.