Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by May 1, 2025, at 11:59 PM PT, a tariff of 25% or higher on imports from Mexico is officially in effect in the United States, as a result of an executive order or legislation enacted by President Donald J. Trump.

Confirmation Sources:

• Official announcements from the U.S. government, such as press releases or statements from the White House or U.S. Trade Representative.

• Publications in the Federal Register detailing the implementation of such tariffs.

• Reports from reputable news outlets confirming the enforcement of the tariffs.

Clarifications:

• The tariff must be actively enforced by the specified date and time.

• If the tariff is announced but not yet implemented by May 1, 2025, at 11:59 PM PT, the market will resolve to “No”.

• If a tariff below 25% is in effect, the market will resolve to “No”.

• Should the tariff be implemented and then repealed before the specified date and time, the market will resolve to “No”.

Background:

On February 1, 2025, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, initially set to take effect on February 4, 2025. However, after negotiations, the implementation was paused for 30 days, delaying enforcement until March 6, 2025. As of now, it remains uncertain whether the tariffs will be enforced, further delayed, or canceled.

This market aims to assess whether the proposed tariffs will be in effect by the specified date.