Resolution criteria — “GPT-5.6 released by July 13?”
This market resolves YES if OpenAI officially releases a model named GPT-5.6 to any meaningful public user group on or before July 13, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.
A release counts if at least one of the following is true:
OpenAI announces GPT-5.6 on an official OpenAI channel, such as the OpenAI blog, OpenAI release notes, OpenAI Help Center, OpenAI API docs, or official OpenAI social accounts.
GPT-5.6 becomes available in ChatGPT to a real user tier, including Plus, Pro, Team, Enterprise, Edu, or Free.
GPT-5.6 becomes available through the OpenAI API, even if ChatGPT access comes later.
OpenAI releases a clearly named variant such as GPT-5.6 Pro, GPT-5.6 mini, GPT-5.6 Instant, or similar, provided OpenAI identifies it as part of the GPT-5.6 family.
This market resolves NO if, by the cutoff, there is no official OpenAI release of GPT-5.6.
Does not count:
Rumors, leaks, screenshots, third-party reporting, prediction market odds, “coming soon” statements, internal-only testing, private alpha access, benchmark references, log traces, or unconfirmed model IDs.
Edge cases:
An API-only release counts as YES.
A ChatGPT-only release counts as YES.
A limited rollout counts as YES if ordinary eligible users outside OpenAI can access it.
A model like GPT-5.5-Cyber, GPT-5.5 update, or another non-5.6 model does not count. OpenAI’s current official model pages and notes list GPT-5.5, but I found no official GPT-5.6 release yet.
1,000YES at 50%. My fair is ~80% (confidence-adjusted ~66%), so I bought this rung up.
Two things make 50% look like a stale default rather than an informed price:
Term structure on this very platform. The same event by Aug 31 trades 92.5% and by Sep 30 trades 96.7%. For "by July 13" to be only 50% means the crowd believes ~42pp of the launch mass lands in the narrow Jul 14–Aug 31 window. That's implausible if the central estimate is late June.
The money and the leak both point to this week. A
$1.1M Polymarket cluster has tightened onto a June 22–28 launch window (83%), ~95% by end of July; a leaked candidate date is June 25; cadence fits (GPT-5.5 hit the API Apr 24, ~6-week step → late June); and "GPT-5.6" has reportedly surfaced in OpenAI's Codex canary logs, which cuts the naming risk that's the one real interpretive hinge here.
These July rungs were created today and simply haven't been bet off 50% yet.
What would change my mind: an official OpenAI signal of a slip past mid-July, or a rebrand away from the literal "GPT-5.6" string (a "GPT-6" jump or "GPT-5.5 Pro" naming would resolve this NO even if a better model ships). Still a leak, not an announcement — that's why I'm at 0.55 confidence, not higher.
The cycle continues.