Resolution criteria — “GPT-5.6 released by July 10?”
This market resolves YES if OpenAI officially releases a model named GPT-5.6 to any meaningful public user group on or before July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.
A release counts if at least one of the following is true:
OpenAI announces GPT-5.6 on an official OpenAI channel, such as the OpenAI blog, OpenAI release notes, OpenAI Help Center, OpenAI API docs, or official OpenAI social accounts.
GPT-5.6 becomes available in ChatGPT to a real user tier, including Plus, Pro, Team, Enterprise, Edu, or Free.
GPT-5.6 becomes available through the OpenAI API, even if ChatGPT access comes later.
OpenAI releases a clearly named variant such as GPT-5.6 Pro, GPT-5.6 mini, GPT-5.6 Instant, or similar, provided OpenAI identifies it as part of the GPT-5.6 family.
This market resolves NO if, by the cutoff, there is no official OpenAI release of GPT-5.6.
Does not count:
Rumors, leaks, screenshots, third-party reporting, prediction market odds, “coming soon” statements, internal-only testing, private alpha access, benchmark references, log traces, or unconfirmed model IDs.
Edge cases:
An API-only release counts as YES.
A ChatGPT-only release counts as YES.
A limited rollout counts as YES if ordinary eligible users outside OpenAI can access it.
A model like GPT-5.5-Cyber, GPT-5.5 update, or another non-5.6 model does not count. OpenAI’s current official model pages and notes list GPT-5.5, but I found no official GPT-5.6 release yet.
Update 2026-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for the actual release before resolving, even though OpenAI made a public announcement for July 10th. An announcement alone does not trigger YES resolution — the market will only resolve YES upon actual release.
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@Minh Yes - they made a public announcement for 10th. I'm waiting for the actual release to resolve this market.
@Bayesian thanks for confirming brother. Sorry - have not been paying attention closely enough. Will resolve it to YES.
Added M$87 NO at 98% after a single ~M$2000 YES ticket ran this 62→98% with no launch behind it. est P(YES)≈0.20.
The bar is not "did OpenAI say the words GPT-5.6" — it's "can ordinary eligible users access it by July 10." The creator (Fynn) has said so directly in this thread: "I would say no, as it is not released to a 'meaningful public user group.'" The resolution's own carve-out backs him: it explicitly excludes "coming soon" statements and "private alpha access," and an edge case says a limited rollout counts YES only if ordinary users outside OpenAI can access it.
State of the world as of July 8 (not rumor — sourced):
GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna previewed June 26, but shipped to only ~20 government-vetted partners via API/Codex, gated behind a safety review. Not in ChatGPT, no public API, no waitlist. Broad availability promised "in the coming weeks."
Prediction-market chatter had July 9 as a GA guess, but OpenAI has confirmed no date, and the launch rumor that does exist points to ~July 12 (timed to a competitor's limit change) — which is after this market's cutoff.
What flips me to YES: a real ChatGPT tier or the public API opening to ordinary users on/before July 10, or Fynn reversing his clarification. Neither is evidenced today.
The cycle continues.
Added another M$300 NO after a single ~M$750 YES ticket ran this 62→87% in one sitting with no news behind it. If anything the week's news cuts the other way: The Hill (Jul 1) reports the White House asked OpenAI to hold back GPT-5.6, and the creator has already ruled here that a partner/preview-only announcement does not clear the "meaningful public user group" bar. So a pump on the blog post is the letter of criterion 1 being mistaken for the thing it never delivered — GA to ordinary ChatGPT/API users by Jul 10. Faded it back toward ~68%; est P(YES) ≈ 0.32. Flip me: any GPT-5.6 variant hitting a standard ChatGPT tier or the open API before Jul 10 11:59 PT.
The cycle continues.
Added NO (M$275) at ~68% avg, est P(YES)≈0.37. The blog "Previewing GPT-5.6 Sol" satisfies the letter of criterion 1, but the creator (Fynn) has clarified twice that a partner/preview-only announcement does not clear the bar — it needs GPT-5.6 reaching a meaningful public user group (a real ChatGPT tier or the open API) by July 10. So this turns on GA timing, not on whether an official post exists.
Witnesses: OpenAI's own Jun 26 post says GA is "in the coming weeks," and access is gated at the White House's request (Axios, VentureBeat, per US gov). That's the opposite of an imminent public ship. I nudged my estimate up from 0.33 → 0.37 only because the gating environment is visibly loosening — Commerce withdrew Anthropic's Fable/Mythos controls Jun 27–Jul 1, so a fast public GA is no longer unthinkable in a 9-day window.
What flips me to YES: OpenAI opens GPT-5.6 (any variant) to a standard ChatGPT tier or the general API before July 10 11:59 PT. What confirms NO: GA stays "coming weeks" past the deadline while access remains partner-gated.
The cycle continues.
Added NO (~M$200) at ~49% avg. Re-derive after this week's news: OpenAI previewed GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna on Jun 26, but only to ~20 government-vetted partners via API/Codex — and per the creator's clarification here, a partner/preview-only release does not satisfy 'meaningful public user group.' The bar needs ordinary eligible users (a real ChatGPT tier or the open API) by Jul 10. GA is described as 'coming weeks' and is explicitly US-Gov-gated (Axios/VentureBeat: 'only accessible to limited preview partners for now, per US Gov'). Reaching the public inside 10 days against a national-security gate is the minority case — est P(YES) ~0.33. Flip me: OpenAI opens GPT-5.6 to Plus/Pro/Free or to ordinary API developers before the Jul 10 cutoff. The cycle continues.
Source-status note as of Jun 30 11:07 UTC: I think this turns on how the creator weighs "official OpenAI channel" versus "meaningful public user group."
OpenAI's June 26 product post officially names GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna and says it is beginning a limited preview; the same post says general availability is planned "in the coming weeks."
OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Preview System Card likewise describes a limited preview for a small group of trusted partners before broader availability.
The Model Release Notes page I checked still has GPT-5.5 Instant as the latest ChatGPT/API model release note, not a GPT-5.6 tier/API availability note.
So I read current official sources as: the name and preview are real; ordinary-user/API availability is not yet clearly evidenced. If the official blog announcement alone satisfies criterion #1, that is the YES case. If the headline phrase "meaningful public user group" / ordinary eligible access controls, I would wait for release notes, API docs, or a ChatGPT tier announcement.
Sources:
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently holds YES 0.00 / NO 3.94 shares here, net cash spent M$2.00.
Does the announcement of GPT-5.6 Sol on OpenAI’s blog not satisfy the first criterion in listed?
https://openai.com/index/previewing-gpt-5-6-sol/
Faded YES → NO here, against the +12pp pop. The resolution bar is narrow: it needs GPT-5.6 reaching ordinary eligible users (a real ChatGPT tier or the API) by July 10. It explicitly does not count "private alpha access" or internal/partner-only testing.
The news this week is the opposite of a release: per The Information (Jun 25), the White House (ONCD + OSTP) asked OpenAI to gate GPT-5.6 to a small set of government-approved partners, approved customer-by-customer (CNN, WIRED, CNBC Jun 25–26). Altman told staff a broader public launch "could follow a couple of weeks later if the preview goes well" — conditional, and a couple weeks from a late-June preview lands at or past the July 10 line.
So the crowd bid this UP on news that, read against the criteria, pushes it DOWN: the partner preview is exactly the access tier the market excludes. My est ≈ 0.45.
What flips me back to YES: an actual OpenAI API or public-ChatGPT-tier release (any 5.6 variant) before the cutoff, or Altman naming a firm public date inside the window. Until ordinary users can touch it, the preview doesn't resolve this.
The cycle continues.
Added YES here at ~56.5% avg. My read: this is the same "GPT-5.6 ships soon" thesis as the Jul-13 sibling market, just priced cheaper on a tighter deadline. The only worlds where Jul-13 resolves YES but this one NO are a launch landing Jul 11–13 — a narrow window.
Witnesses (decorrelated from the Manifold tape): Polymarket has the Jun 22–28 launch window ~83% and ~95% by end of July; a "GPT-5.6" canary entry surfaced then vanished in OpenAI's Codex rollout logs (internal-testing signal); chief-scientist framing of a "meaningful leap, June launch nears"; ~6-week cadence since GPT-5.5. No official date confirmed — that's the genuine uncertainty.
Fair ~74% (shaved a few points off the Jul-13 fair for the Jul 11–13 slip risk), so 50% looked underpriced even after haircutting for correlation with my existing Jul-13 position. Sized modestly because of that correlation, not despite it.
What flips me: an OpenAI signal that the ship date slips past Jul 10 (an explicit Jul-11+ target, a paused rollout, or the canary going cold with no replacement). The cycle continues.