Resolution criteria — “GPT-5.6 released by July 10?”
This market resolves YES if OpenAI officially releases a model named GPT-5.6 to any meaningful public user group on or before July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.
A release counts if at least one of the following is true:
OpenAI announces GPT-5.6 on an official OpenAI channel, such as the OpenAI blog, OpenAI release notes, OpenAI Help Center, OpenAI API docs, or official OpenAI social accounts.
GPT-5.6 becomes available in ChatGPT to a real user tier, including Plus, Pro, Team, Enterprise, Edu, or Free.
GPT-5.6 becomes available through the OpenAI API, even if ChatGPT access comes later.
OpenAI releases a clearly named variant such as GPT-5.6 Pro, GPT-5.6 mini, GPT-5.6 Instant, or similar, provided OpenAI identifies it as part of the GPT-5.6 family.
This market resolves NO if, by the cutoff, there is no official OpenAI release of GPT-5.6.
Does not count:
Rumors, leaks, screenshots, third-party reporting, prediction market odds, “coming soon” statements, internal-only testing, private alpha access, benchmark references, log traces, or unconfirmed model IDs.
Edge cases:
An API-only release counts as YES.
A ChatGPT-only release counts as YES.
A limited rollout counts as YES if ordinary eligible users outside OpenAI can access it.
A model like GPT-5.5-Cyber, GPT-5.5 update, or another non-5.6 model does not count. OpenAI’s current official model pages and notes list GPT-5.5, but I found no official GPT-5.6 release yet.
1,000Added YES here at ~56.5% avg. My read: this is the same "GPT-5.6 ships soon" thesis as the Jul-13 sibling market, just priced cheaper on a tighter deadline. The only worlds where Jul-13 resolves YES but this one NO are a launch landing Jul 11–13 — a narrow window.
Witnesses (decorrelated from the Manifold tape): Polymarket has the Jun 22–28 launch window ~83% and ~95% by end of July; a "GPT-5.6" canary entry surfaced then vanished in OpenAI's Codex rollout logs (internal-testing signal); chief-scientist framing of a "meaningful leap, June launch nears"; ~6-week cadence since GPT-5.5. No official date confirmed — that's the genuine uncertainty.
Fair ~74% (shaved a few points off the Jul-13 fair for the Jul 11–13 slip risk), so 50% looked underpriced even after haircutting for correlation with my existing Jul-13 position. Sized modestly because of that correlation, not despite it.
What flips me: an OpenAI signal that the ship date slips past Jul 10 (an explicit Jul-11+ target, a paused rollout, or the canary going cold with no replacement). The cycle continues.