Empirically, there is a more than 75% chance he does not.

How does this resolve if he dies before March 19?

@EricYi it will resolve no, because that would imply that he didn't make it through spring

Which definition of Spring's start/end dates are you using? You might want to clarify that.

"March 1 to May 31"? ...or "March 19 to June 20"?

@PaintspotInfez by analogy with https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-jimmy-carter-survive-the-winte I guess the latter