This is a group for AI timelines with a focus on the near-term, the specific, the measurable, and the objective. There is wiggle room on each of those, in particular for the last since many interesting questions will always have subjective resolution criteria, but I will remove questions from the group if I don't feel they mostly meet these criteria.

In particular questions like "When will AGI be developed" are flat banned, unless the description includes a detailed and measurable definition of "AGI" for the purposes of the question.