Hello Manifold community!
Some of you have probably seen my bots trading around the site since December 2025. My main bot account reached #13 on the all-time leaderboard after just six months of trading. I’ve grown a bit bored of the bot game, and now I’d like to give back and make it easy for anyone to run their own bot. Everything I use to trade is included and no secrets! Well, except my API keys.
The code: https://github.com/royluo20/mochi-manifold-kalshi-bot
Most of what you need is in the README. The repo has two parts:
The trading code, written in C++ for speed. It streams Kalshi’s order books and Manifold’s prices and trades Manifold back to the Kalshi price whenever they drift apart.
A Telegram control bot. It connects market pairs and changes the config remotely, straight from your phone.
The README also walks through running it on a cloud server, from creating the VM to your first dry run. Follow the README instructions if you want to participate in the sports trading game! Or politics!
Notes on further improvements
Risk management. The trading code has tons of risk controls. Most were added back when I was the only bot trading, to reduce variance against big human whale traders. You could strip many of them out for some extra speed, though the gain may be minor.
Let an agent run it. The control bot is just Telegram commands, so you can hand it to an AI agent (even Muse can manage it). Once you’ve tuned the agent, you don’t have to spend any time on it at all.
Extra helpers I left out. I built a few other tools along the way, like a cash-sweep bot. I don’t think they matter much, and you can ask Claude to write one if you need it.
Configs are your call. Without bot competition, I only took high-edge trades. With competition, you need to take every edge possible, or the other bots will suck the AMM dry before you get there. That setting increases your bot’s variance, but there’s not much that can be done about it.
For anything not covered in the README, ask your chatbot to read through the code and check for further improvements.
If it’s useful to you, feel free to ⭐ star the repo, and tips in mana are always welcome!
It places real orders with your mana. It starts in dry-run mode, so watch the log before switching it on. Use at your own risk.
Happy trading!