Have you ever been to a Manifold-themed party before? Neither have I! Let’s figure this out together and have a lot of fun. 😊 Here's what you can expect and some tips to make the most out of your experience.
The party revolves around Manifold Markets, a play-money prediction market platform. Don't worry if you're unfamiliar with prediction markets - there will be plenty of experts at the party to explain it to you! I would recommend finding someone who looks nice / patient and ask them to explain prediction markets and Manifold – it takes a minute to understand, but it's intuitive once you get going!
Once you understand the basics, ask your friendly guide to help you find the relevant group on Manifold (I would recommend signing up for an account via the app or access via the web). This group houses all the markets related to this party – there are lots, so spend a few minutes looking through and see if there are any that interest you!
The evening has no official structure – it will be somewhat chaotic and freeform, driven by attendees’ desire for profit and fun. As the host, I may nudge things along, but in general there’s nothing that you necessarily “ought to be doing”.
Understanding the directions thus far have been somewhat vague, here is a more specific list of ways that you can enjoy the party:
Forget all the markets stuff and socialize / play games
Yes, you may enter and leave the party without a Manifold account
There will be food / drinks / games / interesting people, so plenty to do and enjoy sans any market manipulation :)
Try to accurately predict things about the party
There are loads of markets in the party group, and you should place lots of bets! It's fun and most everybody won't be taking it very seriously
Try not to get paralyzed by making the perfect, most optimal bet - it is OK if you lose Mana on a market that doesn't go your way, it's play money after all!
Try to manipulate markets for profit
Yes, you read that right - manipulating markets is part of the fun! Look at the list of markets in the group and see if you can influence the outcome for profit.
For example, if there's a market on whether a party guest will submerge themselves in the nearby ocean, you can buy "Yes" shares and do it yourself to earn a profit! It's all about having fun and being creative.
Alternatively, there are markets on whether certain games will be played. If you buy “Yes” shares on those markets and then play the game, you will have manipulated the market and earned a profit!
Create markets
It's fun to create markets! And this is an excellent opportunity to create them, since it is highly likely that you can get sufficient people to bet on them to pay back the cost of the market (particularly if you ask people to bet on them)
There are several different types of party markets, and probably some that I haven't thought of:
Traditional Markets: Pick an event that could happen at a future point in time, create a market on it, and let people bet on whether it will happen!
Dare Markets: These are markets where you are effectively daring someone to complete the task for profit (e.g., ocean submersion). Nobody has to do it, but eventually if there is enough profit to win and the shares are trading low enough, maybe someone will do it for the mana?
Survey Markets: These are best created before the start of the party, as we will be asking attendees to respond to a survey about themselves to help with resolution on these markets. E.g., Will 20%+ of attendees be left-handed?
Game Markets: A market that asks whether a certain game will be played. If you really like a certain game, create a market on whether it will be played! That way, it makes the game top of mind and gives a profit incentive to manipulators to make sure it gets played.
Best of luck, and enjoy the party!