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MANIFOLD
Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 French Open Semifinals?
22
แน€1.8kแน€21k
resolved Jun 3
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Jessica Pegula
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Qinwen Zheng
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Elena Rybakina
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Jasmine Paolini
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Karolina Muchova
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Amanda Anisimova
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Coco Gauff
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Victoria Mboko
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Iga Swiatek
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Belinda Bencic
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Anastasia Potapova
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Madison Keys
Resolved
YES
Other (Any Player Not Listed Above)
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Naomi Osaka
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Elina Svitolina
Resolved
YES
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Marta Kostyuk
Resolved
YES
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Mirra Andreeva
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Aryna Sabalenka

Resolution criteria

  • Each of the listed players resolves YES if that player appears as one of the four semifinalists in the 2026 Frenc Open (Roland Garros) Womenโ€™s Singles main draw; players resolve NO otherwise. Verification: the official French Open womenโ€™s singles draw/results page or PDF and/or the WTA tournament page. Links:

  • + https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/
    + https://www.wtatennis.com/tournaments/roland-garros

  • โ€œOther (Any Player Not Listed Above)โ€ resolves YES if at least one of the four semifinalists is not among the named answers; resolves NO if all four semifinalists are from the listed options. For clarity's sake, those listed players are:

    • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Aryna Sabalenka

      ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Elena Rybakina

      ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Iga Swiatek

      ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Coco Gauff

      ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Mirra Andreeva

      ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Marta Kostyuk

      ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Elina Svitolina

      ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Jessica Pegula

      ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Jasmine Paolini

      ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Karolina Muchova

      ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Amanda Anisimova

      ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Qinwen Zheng

      ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Madison Keys

      ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Naomi Osaka

      ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Belinda Bencic

      ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Anastasia Potapova

      ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Victoria Mboko

  • Edge cases: for any players that do not appear in the main draw (withdrawing prior to the tournament for any reason), those players will resolve N/A. If a player plays at least one point in a main draw match, however, and THEN has to retire due to injury before the semifinals, that player will resolve NO. If a player retires during the semifinal matches, that makes no difference to this market. As market creator, I reserve the right to N/A if there is some sort of unforeseen extraordinary circumstance.

Background

Event dates/venue: May 24โ€“Jun 7, 2026, Stade Roland Garros (Paris). The 2026 edition uses a 15-day format starting on a Sunday. Women's semifinals are scheduled for Thu, Jun 4 (afternoon). (rolandgarros.com, atptour.com, wtatennis.com)

Considerations

  • Only the Womenโ€™s Singles main draw counts for the purpose of this market (not doubles, mixed, or juniors).

Market context
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@traders a pretty crazy tournament on both sides culminates in sabalenka unexpectedly dropping a double break lead in the second set and losing the last ten games of the match to go out! the semis are up on the women's match market now. hope to see you there!

bought แน€873 YES

@polymathematic This resolves yes, since Kalinskaya will face the winner of Chwalinska/Parry for a spot in the semis, and none of them are listed.