As of 10:43AM EDT on Oct 08, 2024, Trump is ahead of Harris 50.0% to 49.4% on the electionbettingodds “last day” chart. This is at least the third lead exchange since the Democratic National Convention and appears to follow some whale activity on Polymarket.

Needless to say, it's a close election. How many more times should we expect Harris and Trump to exchange the lead between now and the day before the election, November 4?

To prevent confusion about what constitutes "passing", I will steal liberally from @pluffASMR's excellent markets on electionbettingodds, a selection of which appears below.

NOTE:

Exact time of the pass in this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Through analyzing the graph after market creation, if at any 30-minute interval, I determine Kamala's odds have overtaken Trump by at least 0.1% it will be considered a pass for the point at which the 0.1% or greater Kamala lead is shown on the graph (or vice versa if Kamala does pass Trump at some point).

This market will consider all such passes following 10/8 10:45am EST through the end of day on November 4 (11:59:59 pm EST). If Trump remains ahead through November 4, the "zero times" option will resolve YES and all others will resolve NO. If Kamala passes Trump and then remains ahead through November 4, the "at least once" option will resolve YES and all other options will resolve NO. If Trump passes Kamala again after Kamala passed Trump, BOTH the "at least once" and "at least twice" options will resolve YES and all other options will resolve NO. And so forth.

To further ensure bias has no roll in determining the “official time of the pass” I will not trade in this market.

Comment any question or news you have!