Who will beat their polls on Election Day 2024? Lines taken roughly from 538 as of 8:15 p.m. CST on November 4.

For each race, I've listed the favorite. A bet on YES is a bet that the favorite wins by at least that much. For example:

National Popular Vote: Harris -1.5

A bet on YES is a bet on Harris to win the national popular vote by more than 1.5 percent. A bet on NO is a bet on Trump to win the popular vote outright or lose by less than 1.5 percent.

Texas Senate: Cruz (R) -4.0

A bet on YES is a bet on Ted Cruz to win by more than 4 percent. A bet on NO is a bet on Colin Allred (D) to win the Texas Senate seat outright or lose by less than 4 percent.

Will resolve as quickly as possible based on credible reporting of the final vote counts. Wherever the races are particular close to these lines, I will likely wait longer. Wherever the races stray particularly far from these lines, I will resolve earlier.