The end of a day in this market is when the 11:59pm minute ends in the Eastern US time zone.

will add more key dates (scroll down)

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing passing time and soft passes, time of a “pass” in this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Through analyzing the graph, if at any 30-minute interval, I determine Trump’s odds has overtaken Harris’ by at least 1.0% it will be considered a “pass” for the time interval at which the 1.0% or greater difference is shown on the graph. All options indicating a time after that “pass” point resolve YES, all others resolve NO.

To further ensure bias has no roll in determining the official time of a “pass” I will not trade in this market.

If Trump odds never pass Kamala before the certification of the election (on Jan. 6th), “Trump never passes Kamala.” will resolve YES and everything else will resolve NO.

Will not resolve from a determined glitch spike or fresh points that eventually move back down to a difference lower than 1.0% (will wait until the point is static and the following 30min interval is plotted).

Example:

A real point on the “last day” chart is plotted that shows Trump at 49.3% and Kamala at 48.3% at a time stamp of September 15th 6:30pm ET

Then, every option indicating a date after and including September 15th will resolve YES immediately and all others will resolve NO.

As of August 11th, Trump is down 6.5%

Potential Key Dates:

August 19-22 Democratic National Convention

September 10th ABC Presidential Debate

September potential presidential debates

October 1st vice presidential debate

November 5th Election Day

December 17th-25th Electorates vote - deadline

January 6th Congress Counts Electoral Votes

Comment any questions, related markets, or news you have! 💙