When will the next time be at least 1 human sets foot on the moon again? To resolve as Yes, it must happen anytime in that year.
Related questions
https://spacenews.com/gao-report-warns-artemis-3-landing-may-be-delayed-to-2027/
hint: it's almost definitely not happening in 2027
There was really big arbitrage opportunities with
https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
and
https://manifold.markets/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20
I tried to correct some of these, but I don't actually have any domain knowledge of the issue. I'm encouraging others to do correcting!
[Also, I'd really like if on this type of questions there was a canonical multiple choice market. Kinda sad that we have two separate big markets for specific years, with some duplicates as well, and the multiple choice market gets less attention.]
@Loppukilpailija The main issue is that the multiple choice markets didn't exist back when the individual markets were made. That gives the individual years more attention simply because the markets have existed longer. I think the multiple choice markets have existed for less than a month.
The second issue is that there's so many people making moon landing markets before checking whether they already exist or not. Here's my collection atm:
Multiple choice:
/SenneVanHeghe/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo
/JosephNoonan/when-will-the-next-moon-landing-occ
<2025:
/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th
/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b
/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l
<2026:
/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land
/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon
/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45
/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human
/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on
<2027:
/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033
/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the
/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be
<2028:
/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20
/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor
2028 or later:
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd
My probabilities:
2026: 0
2027: 0.02
2028: 0.213814
2029: 0.6121345
later: 0.1540515
edit:
My new probabilities:
2026 0.01
2027 0.03
2028 0.107472
2029 0.53054838
later 0.32197962
@calderknight Where are you generating such specific probabilities from? Do you really think you know your credence to the 7th decimal place?
No, but I don't gain anything by rounding. Pretty much: I just made guesses for China and USA then did the math to figure out the overall probabilities.
My prophesy: we will finally return to the Moon in 2029, and both the USA and China will land astronauts on the Moon in 2029 (the USA will be first).
