When will humans set foot on the moon again?
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Plus
58
Ṁ10k
2025
0.1%
2023
0.2%
2024
0.7%
2025
4%
2026
16%
2027
31%
2028
25%
2029
23%
2030 or later

When will the next time be at least 1 human sets foot on the moon again? To resolve as Yes, it must happen anytime in that year.

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There was really big arbitrage opportunities with

https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again

and

https://manifold.markets/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20

I tried to correct some of these, but I don't actually have any domain knowledge of the issue. I'm encouraging others to do correcting!

[Also, I'd really like if on this type of questions there was a canonical multiple choice market. Kinda sad that we have two separate big markets for specific years, with some duplicates as well, and the multiple choice market gets less attention.]

@Loppukilpailija The main issue is that the multiple choice markets didn't exist back when the individual markets were made. That gives the individual years more attention simply because the markets have existed longer. I think the multiple choice markets have existed for less than a month.

The second issue is that there's so many people making moon landing markets before checking whether they already exist or not. Here's my collection atm:

Multiple choice:

/SenneVanHeghe/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo

/JosephNoonan/when-will-the-next-moon-landing-occ

<2025:

/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th

/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b

/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l

<2026:

/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land

/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon

/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45

/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human

/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on

<2027:

/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033

/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the

/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be

<2028:

/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20

/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor

2028 or later:

/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again

/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb

/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd

/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6

/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-8dae5a22f504

I would be interested in hearing what prob you guys think there is of Artemis III landing astronauts on the Moon. Oh, I guess I can make a market for it.

My probabilities:

  • 2026: 0

  • 2027: 0.02

  • 2028: 0.213814

  • 2029: 0.6121345

  • later: 0.1540515

edit:

My new probabilities:

  • 2026 0.01

  • 2027 0.03

  • 2028 0.107472

  • 2029 0.53054838

  • later 0.32197962

@calderknight Where are you generating such specific probabilities from? Do you really think you know your credence to the 7th decimal place?

@JosephNoonan

No, but I don't gain anything by rounding. Pretty much: I just made guesses for China and USA then did the math to figure out the overall probabilities.

calderknight.net/return-to-the-moon.html

@calderknight I see, so it came from combining individual probabilities for the U.S. and China.

My prophesy: we will finally return to the Moon in 2029, and both the USA and China will land astronauts on the Moon in 2029 (the USA will be first).

lololol

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