https://spacenews.com/gao-report-warns-artemis-3-landing-may-be-delayed-to-2027/

hint: it's almost definitely not happening in 2027

There was really big arbitrage opportunities with

https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again

and

https://manifold.markets/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20

I tried to correct some of these, but I don't actually have any domain knowledge of the issue. I'm encouraging others to do correcting!

[Also, I'd really like if on this type of questions there was a canonical multiple choice market. Kinda sad that we have two separate big markets for specific years, with some duplicates as well, and the multiple choice market gets less attention.]

@Loppukilpailija The main issue is that the multiple choice markets didn't exist back when the individual markets were made. That gives the individual years more attention simply because the markets have existed longer. I think the multiple choice markets have existed for less than a month.

The second issue is that there's so many people making moon landing markets before checking whether they already exist or not. Here's my collection atm:

Multiple choice:

When will humans set foot on the moon again?‌

When will the next Moon landing occur?‌

‌

<2025:

Will a human walk on the moon by the end of 2024NO‌

Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2025?NO‌

Will a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2024?1%‌

‌

<2026:

Will there be a new human moon landing by the end of 2025?1%‌

Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2026?2%‌

Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2026?2%‌

By the start of 2026, will any human being (save for the 12 Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon) have walked on the surface of any celestial body other than Earth?4%‌

Will a country put another flag on the moon by 2026?3%‌

<2027:

Will a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2026?7%‌

Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?4%‌

Will Astronauts walk on the moon before the end of 2026.5%‌

<2028:

Will a human land on the moon by 2028?13%‌

Will a human land on the moon before 2028?14%‌

‌

2028 or later:

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?42%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?60%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2031?76%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2032?80%‌

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2033?82%‌

I would be interested in hearing what prob you guys think there is of Artemis III landing astronauts on the Moon. Oh, I guess I can make a market for it.

My probabilities:

• 2026: 0

• 2027: 0.02

• 2028: 0.213814

• 2029: 0.6121345

• later: 0.1540515

edit:

My new probabilities:

• 2026 0.01

• 2027 0.03

• 2028 0.107472

• 2029 0.53054838

• later 0.32197962

@calderknight Where are you generating such specific probabilities from? Do you really think you know your credence to the 7th decimal place?

@JosephNoonan

No, but I don't gain anything by rounding. Pretty much: I just made guesses for China and USA then did the math to figure out the overall probabilities.

calderknight.net/return-to-the-moon.html

@calderknight I see, so it came from combining individual probabilities for the U.S. and China.

My prophesy: we will finally return to the Moon in 2029, and both the USA and China will land astronauts on the Moon in 2029 (the USA will be first).

lololol

Relevant: https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI