I'm hoping to encourage more creativity in the NFL markets. The NFL category is bogged down by, in my opinion, the most boring and repeated questions (will Team X beat Team Y) when the possibilities are endless!
All new questions (except: will Team X beat Team Y) from this question's creation going forward will count. Must have NFL tag and be specifically about Week 11, 2023. I'll use the "new" filter on the NFL category to determine which markets came after this question.
I may bet on this market and I may make a qualifying market. This question does not count as a new market.
Note that the question specifies if 10 users so only one market per user will "count."
Market closes on Tuesday, November 21.
Subsidized with 100 mana.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ76 | |
| 2 | Ṁ69 | |
| 3 | Ṁ58 | |
| 4 | Ṁ33 | |
| 5 | Ṁ29 |
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Proof that there are two NFL tags. Also I created a new market, so ig i can be counted now :) https://manifold.markets/hiperson/nfl-week-11-will-there-be-more-poin?r=aGlwZXJzb24
https://manifold.markets/MarkLindsay/who-will-be-named-nfl-mvp-for-the-2?r=TWFya0xpbmRzYXk
Not directly related to your question but furthers your stated goal
https://manifold.markets/hiperson/week-11-will-there-be-a-final-score?r=aGlwZXJzb24
Idk if this was counted, as I can't find it in NFL, does manifold not show your own questions?
@FreshFrier this market is duplicate. I don't know if it matters, but I think you were the 11th user anyway if you count this market.
https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-any-team-score-40-points-or-mo?r=R0NT
@GCS damn thought I checked, are you sure there's 11 though? when I checked I thought I was 7th or 8th excluding all the will x beat y markets
@FreshFrier there are the two NFL tags which makes this harder. I recounted 10, but realized this market specifically says this market doesn't count so it's 9 unless @SethWalder makes another one
@StopPunting (although I guess you can argue it could potentially break into effectively betting on just the Monday night game after the Sunday night game in this circumstance haha)
@GCS #NFL Futures is good for anything not Week to Week to filter out the Team X beats Team Y (but not good for Week specific creative ideas)
@SethWalder Count as of 11/16, 12:20 p.m. ET:
5 users have created new qualifying markets
Great idea Seth, I was thinking the same thing. There are so many duplicate will Team X beat Team Y type questions (why do we even need more than one, maybe it would be better if mods just made one official one and closed the others?). Also if one truly wants to know if Team X will beat team Y they could just look at Sportsbook moneylines. The markets here eventually converge to that as no one is actually doing better than that, so it's not really adding anything.
@AjayChabra The issue is that they get so much action (I'll admit that I've tried to front run on those before) that the creators have every incentive to make them. I do think there should be an official one, but idk how Manifold does it without making a specific sports gambling module or approach. Maybe a new hashtag like "#NFL Props" or something that simple team winners can't be in?