This question resolves to "YES" if the Russian government announces before the end of 2022 that it will send conscripts to Ukraine. The government doesn't have to introduce martial law or declare full mobilization, as long as it admits that it will send conscripts to fight in Ukraine without requiring their approval. The question will also resolve to "YES" if conscripts don't start fighting in Ukraine until 2023, as long as the Russian government makes the announcement before that. As several press articles have noted, there has been credible reports that Russia has already used conscripts in Ukraine (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-war-illegally-detained-conscripts-pressure/31926058.html), but so far it seems to have been marginal and the government hasn't made any public announcement that it would send them fight in Ukraine.
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I think I should resolve this question to "YES" based on my previous clarification to Alexander K in the comments. (I should have edited the market description to reflect that clarification, sorry about that.) But I will wait a bit to see if anyone has a valid objection and to wait for more clarity on exactly what the decree signed by Putin contains.
@AlexandreK Yes, but apparently only if that is an admitted policy ("as long as it admits that it will send conscripts to fight in Ukraine without requiring their approval")