比特币会在2025年北京时间12月1日超过130000美元吗
2
100Ṁ26
Dec 1
53%
chance
3

Resolution criteria

  • YES if the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) strictly exceeds $130,000 at any moment between 2025-12-01 00:00:00 and 23:59:59 Beijing time (UTC+8). For avoidance of doubt, the equivalent UTC window is 2025-11-30 16:00:00 to 2025-12-01 15:59:59. Primary source: CoinDesk Indices XBX price page (updates once per second). Backup display: Google Finance ticker “CDIXBX.” (indices.coindesk.com, ir.theice.com, google.com)

  • If the XBX feed is unavailable or clearly erroneous at resolution time, resolve YES only if at least two of the following spot USD markets print a trade > $130,000 during the same window: Coinbase BTC-USD, Kraken XBT/USD, Bitstamp BTC/USD (verify via their official trade-history APIs/pages). (coinbase-cloud.mintlify.app, kraken.zendesk.com, bitstamp.net)

  • Notes: “超过”= strictly greater than; equals $130,000 does not count. Spot markets only (no futures/ETFs). Clearly cancelled error prints are ignored; asset is BTC (Bitcoin).

Background

  • 比特币在2025年8月中创下约$124k的历史高位后回落;路透与多家行情源记录的8月高点在$124k附近(例:8月14日高至约$124.4k)。截至9月初,现价约在低$110k区间波动。 (reuters.com, investing.com)

  • 选择XBX作为主要裁定源的原因:它是跨多交易所的即时报价基准,被传统金融机构采用(例如NYSE宣布基于XBX开发期权),降低单一交易所异常成交对结果的影响。 (ir.theice.com)

Considerations

  • 时区对齐:不少数据网站的“日”线以UTC统计(如CoinMarketCap历史数据),本市场以北京时间的自然日为准;因此给出等效UTC窗口以便交叉验证。 (support.coinmarketcap.com)

  • 若需要人工复核备选源:可用Coinbase Advanced/公共API获取BTC-USD逐笔;Kraken公开Trades端点获取XBT/USD逐笔;Bitstamp Transactions端点获取BTC/USD逐笔。 (coinbase-cloud.mintlify.app, kraken.zendesk.com, bitstamp.net)

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