60% chance of TC genesis. Forecast to become a brief TS.

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
 
The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days 
across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has 
moved into southern Texas.  While the system is producing plentiful 
convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of 
the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds 
will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday.  Thus, 
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, 
and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the 
Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of 
whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and 
life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards 
with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on 
surface and radar data.
 
The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning.  We expect
the low to continue moving in that general direction with some
increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow
associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
States.  Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps
it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore
late Wednesday or early Thursday.  The NHC forecast is between the 
latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus 
HCCA.
 
The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much
intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to
land.  However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to
the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective
support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is
anticipated through Wednesday.  This forecast is similar to the
model consensus IVCN.  It should be noted that this system will
likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the
upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the
rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible 
across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through 
Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the 
weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is 
expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with 
isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the 
Texas Coast and Louisiana.

2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical 
storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast 
through Wednesday.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from 
Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of 
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 27.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0000Z 27.4N  97.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  17/1200Z 28.2N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  18/0000Z 29.6N  93.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 31.6N  91.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake