When will Tropical Storm Arthur form? (AL)
2
Ṁ1kṀ583resolved Jun 17
100%34%
June 17
19%
June 16
14%
June 18
12%
June 19
21%Other
Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/
Subtropical storm also counts.
Resolves to the UTC time written in the advisory text.
N/A if does not form in 2026.
Will add days to the answers as needed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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TS Arthur has formed with the 15Z advisory on June 17:
WTNT41 KNHC 171454
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced
sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective
organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone.
Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report
have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this
convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to
52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm
intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as
Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt.
Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within
strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level
trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast
reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that
will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast
today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and
southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the
track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar
to the previous one.
Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to
land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will
occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern
semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur
will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and
then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields
indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a
24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes,
Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in
the global models for low pressure development over the western
Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from
Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this
low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to
evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation.
Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the
primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper
Texas coast to High Island.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding
are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast.
Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the
weekend.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas
and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart60% chance of TC genesis. Forecast to become a brief TS.
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days
across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has
moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful
convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of
the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds
will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One,
and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the
Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of
whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards
with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on
surface and radar data.
The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect
the low to continue moving in that general direction with some
increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow
associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps
it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore
late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the
latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus
HCCA.
The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much
intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to
land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to
the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective
support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is
anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the
model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will
likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the
upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the
rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible
across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through
Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the
weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is
expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with
isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the
Texas Coast and Louisiana.
2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical
storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast
through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from
Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.
3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake