The deal may face opposition that causes it to fail:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/investing/us-steel-nippon-steel-deal/index.html
Will the deal go through to completion?
Resolves according to reputable news reports or official government sources that the acquisition of the deal has successfully concluded and faces no legal opposition (YES), or press releases from either company officially withdrawing from the deal (NO).
The market date will be extended indefinitely until the outcome is decided.
I will not follow strict legalese regarding resolution criteria as there are many loopholes, so this question will foremost try to follow the spirit of the question.
Update 2024-11-12 (PST): The market will remain open as long as there are legal challenges to any proposed blocking of the deal, including forthcoming or promised legal challenges reported by news sources. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - Market close date has been extended by one year. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated their intention to resolve the market to YES, providing a 24-hour window for users to present evidence of any other serious legal challenges before resolution. See the creator's comment for their full reasoning.
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Per wide reporting Nippon Steel finalized its acquisition of US Steel on Wednesday, June 18, 2025.
The only previous ongoing legal challenge that has been reported, Freeland et al., has been dismissed as of Friday, June 20, 2025 (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCOURTS-cand-5_25-cv-01240/pdf/USCOURTS-cand-5_25-cv-01240-0.pdf).
As far as I am aware there are no other serious legal challenges. Anyone wishing to correct me on this note has 24 hours to do so before I resolve YES.
Using the DPA, President Biden has formally blocked the deal (as long anticipated):
Nippon steel (as previously promised through the press) has issued a press release in response stating that they will take legal recourse:
A reminder to bettors of the implications of this markets original resolution criteria: this market will be extended as long as there exist legal challenges (including any forthcoming/promised ones in reporting) to any proposed blocking of the deal as have been indicated by recent news sources: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/biden-set-to-finally-kill-nippon-steel-s-proposed-takeover-of-us-steel
Might be interesting (yet unsurprising) seeing Nippon steel advertising in Punchbowl newsletter with a link to their advertising campaign for the merger: https://www.bestdealforamericansteel.com/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=5/20/24%20%20Punchbowl%20News%20AM&utm_term=Punchbowl%20AM%20and%20Active%20Subscribers%20from%20Memberful%20Combined