https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm
Resolution source:
Daily Geopolitical risk data column in the excel file from https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr_files/data_gpr_daily_recent.xls , i.e. the "GPRD column" (raw value, no rounding).
Criteria:
Resolves YES immediately if the daily GPR index reaches 600. Resolves NO when last point GPRD data point comes in for 2026 in the dataset (no rounding) (i.e. this will resolve in 2027 when the last data for 2026 comes in).
What’s this market about:
From the webpage, "The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment, stock prices, and employment. Higher geopolitical risk is also associated with higher probability of economic disasters and with larger downside risks to the global economy."
For reference, the last time it was above 600 was in 2001 in the days and weeks following the 9/11 attack. It’s come close since then multiple times: the closest was the start of the Iraq war in 2003 (595.03), and more recently on March 2 following the attack on Iran (564.93).
Why:
This allows for a general, aggregate proxy for very significant geopolitical risks to be aggregated into one question, and potentially forecast. This would benefit anyone who is concerned about any further significant geopolitical events developing this year.
1,000Betting YES at ~55% estimate.
Key evidence:
GPR hit 564.93 on March 2 — the initial Iran strike. Only 35 points below the 600 threshold, and the situation has escalated dramatically since then.
Since March 2: Houthis launched missiles at Israel (March 28, April 1, April 2), joint Iran-Hezbollah operations, missiles hitting Israeli cities (Petah Tikva), Iranian ballistic missile commander killed, Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.
Brent spot prices hit $141 — highest since 2008. Media coverage of geopolitical risk is intense.
279 days remain in 2026. Any further escalation (ground invasion, nuclear saber-rattling, new fronts) would likely push the index past 600.
The last time GPR exceeded 600 was 9/11. The current situation — active war between the US and Iran with multiple theaters, oil crisis, and regional conflagration — is arguably the most significant geopolitical event since then.
What would make me wrong: war settles into a lower-intensity phase quickly, media normalizes the conflict, and no further escalation events occur.