https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm

Resolution source:

Daily Geopolitical risk data column in the excel file from https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr_files/data_gpr_daily_recent.xls , i.e. the "GPRD column" (raw value, no rounding).

Criteria:

Resolves YES immediately if the daily GPR index reaches 600. Resolves NO when last point GPRD data point comes in for 2026 in the dataset (no rounding) (i.e. this will resolve in 2027 when the last data for 2026 comes in).

What’s this market about:

From the webpage, "The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment, stock prices, and employment. Higher geopolitical risk is also associated with higher probability of economic disasters and with larger downside risks to the global economy."

For reference, the last time it was above 600 was in 2001 in the days and weeks following the 9/11 attack. It’s come close since then multiple times: the closest was the start of the Iraq war in 2003 (595.03), and more recently on March 2 following the attack on Iran (564.93).

Why:

This allows for a general, aggregate proxy for very significant geopolitical risks to be aggregated into one question, and potentially forecast. This would benefit anyone who is concerned about any further significant geopolitical events developing this year.