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@TiredCliche Note that I don't have any holdings in this market so have no financial incentive for my position.

@TiredCliche A reasonable argument. Somebody will probably get upset (to the extent people pay attention to this small illiquid market) if I resolve YES or NO so I'll just go ahead and NA

[Request for Comment on how this market should resolve. If you have an opinion, please indicate it here!]

---SPOILERS for Stranger Things Season 5 finale ahead---

Possible ways to resolve this market:
1. NA - The finale leaves reasonable doubt as to whether Eleven survived. Both possibilities have enough probability mass that we can't resolve to either one.
2. YES - The story Mike tells at the end is just cope. He has no evidence and we can assume that Eleven actually died when the wormhole collapsed.
3. NO - The story Mike tells is real. It explains some inconsistencies in Eleven's death scene, and the meta-narrative forces of show bizness make it all but inevitable that the Duffer brothers will announce STRANGER THINGS: 2029 reboot in 3 years that establishes this as canon.
4. 50% - We don't know anything, uniform prior over Eleven being dead or alive.
5. 70% or some other value - the balance of evidence on screen points in one direction while leaving substantial probability mass on the other possibility, and the resolution reflects that.

If there is reasonably strong consensus on YES or NO or a specific probability, I'll resolve to that.

If there is no consensus after a day or two, I'll resolve NA.

I lean toward YES in my personal interpretation but I won't resolve that way unless traders express support for this.

Steelman for YES (she ded)
- The main source of uncertainty is Mike's narration at the end of their D&D session.
- Mike admits that he has no evidence that Eleven survived or that his theory is true. It seems out of character for him to lie to the other Stranger Things Kids about this.

- Kali sure looked dead after that shot to the gut.
- Eleven never reaches out to any of her friends even 18 months after the battle to let them know she's alive. Surely the military is fooled at this point?
- We can reasonably assume based on Stranger Things storytelling conventions that the telepathic conversation between Eleven and Mike (where she tells Mike she's going to die in the explosion) is accurate as shown, and that there's no unreliable narrator trick where she actually told Mike she was going to survive.
- Mike weeps as he puts away his D&D binder after telling his copium story, suggesting that he doesn't really believe it himself.

Steelman for NO (alive)
- Kali could have faked the gunshot wound and her death with her illusion powers.
- the escape story explains why Eleven was able to telepathically contact Mike while the military had their anti-Eleven sound cannons on.

- the Strange Things Kids spend all of season 5 making very specific and elaborate guesses with little to no evidence and being right (e.g. the speed and timing and nature of the abyss convergence). maybe Mike is a +6SD abductive reasoner like Sherlock Holmes and he's cracked the case of Eleven's deception.
- metanarrative forces and the profit motive make it likely that the IP owners will try to revive Stranger Things at some point, and they might make "Eleven escaped" canon in order to bring the character back [0].

Note that we are assuming here that "swept away in wormhole collapse" = died.

[0]: I think we should basically ignore things like this and only consider what we see on screen in the moment. If we consider future retcons in resolutions, then a market about the death of Darth Maul that resolved YES in 1999 would have been wrong because Lucasfilm established in the Clone Wars CGI cartoon 12 years later that he actually survived being sliced in half in Phantom Menace.

@ookina_inu speaking of the phantom menace, the Jedi also have speed powers in like one scene and it never comes up again especially when it would be really useful. Just keep in mind that if you resolve NO that means that Stranger Things finale is as bad as The Phantom Menace.

Also you can survive being shot in the gut for quite some time. Also, Mike cries at the end because everyone's crying, it's contractually obligated to have all your characters cry in the show finale. He's sad not because he doesn't believe it but because he's sad tfw no gf.

@TiredCliche > he's sad tfw no gf
real

this outs me as a broccoli head zoomer but I actually liked the phantom menace

I will resolve this after I watch the finale (tomorrow evening at the latest)