if something is supposed to happen after a deadline passes, and a deadline passes, the something happens

@PaulHan Headline makes it clear that they are modifying the first part, not the second part, of the sentence:

@mods Please resolve since the creator's profile says he is inactive.

@Balasar the question was created in January, and no one suggested in March when the identical scenario played out that it should resolve yes. It should resolve no in 10 days.

@polymathematic The question should have resolved as YES in March, the failure to resolve doesn't change the reality of the world.

@Balasar weird that not literally one person trading after March suggested that until yesterday, no?

@polymathematic I was not aware of the March shutdown until yesterday, but again, my lack of knowledge about that fact has no bearing on the fact that the market criteria were met in this market not once, but twice.

@Balasar you’re being obtuse. Your personal knowledge makes no difference to the market. Is it your contention that the March events were known by no one. Not one single trader in these comments or comments elsewhere suggested March counted as a shutdown in any single market across the entire site. It’s not an oversight, it’s clearly in the spirit of the actual question that events like March and last night are not government shutdowns. OMB issued no guidance to any department to begin a shutdown. Government officials actually explicitly guided the opposite.

@polymathematic It would be far less reasonable to resolve this market in opposition to other markets that had identical criteria than to have a diverging criteria in both cases. I suppose it would also be acceptable if all the mana markets resolved N/A.

@Balasar it doesn’t have identical criteria. It has no criteria.

There was a shutdown. They missed the deadline. The shutdown did not last for enough time for bad things to happen, but they missed the deadline and shutdowns happen when the funding deadline is missed

@PaulHan what shut down? Did OMB issue guidance directing any department to shut down? A shutdown isn’t just vibes, something has to actually shut down.

@polymathematic You are right that it isn't vibes, its defined by a specific criteria, which is that the government has to go unfunded for a period of time, which is exactly what happened, and not just for a couple of seconds/minutes, but actually several hours. What the OMB does has no bearing on this market. In the absence of clear criteria specifying the resolution behavior, the market should be resolved the same way as other near-identically worded markets on this site, including the sweeps market, which was YES: https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c?play=false

@Balasar sorry, where is that specific criteria, other than the ad hoc addition to that market yesterday? Do you have a legal definition to share? Is there anything in this market’s description that would clarify?

@polymathematic The legal definition would be found in the Antideficiency Act of 1884, which only discusses what is to happen if there is a lapse in funding. The only existing legal basis for a shutdown only refers to a lack of funding, and so a funding gap should be considered equivalent to a shutdown. The relevant passage below:

"that it shall not be lawful for any department of the government to expend in any one fiscal year any sum in excess of appropriations made by Congress for that fiscal year, or to involve the government in any contract for the future payment of money in excess of such appropriations.

@polymathematic Tim here’s a $15M polymarket that is resolving to yes shutdown because the Senate signed the bill to avoid a shutdown after the deadline. Not sure what you mean by vibes

https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-before-2025?tid=1734798443258

@Balasar it’s funny, ‘cause “shut down” doesn’t appear in that anywhere. But let’s set that aside. Presumably, you have a source for which departments of the government lawfully ceased operations so as not to expend anything in excess of what was appropriated?

This isn’t a logic exercise. We don’t need a deduction here. We need a source that demonstrates any single portion of the government actually shutdown operations or were directed to shutdown operations.

@PaulHan and there’s a $4 million Kalshi market resolving NO. And neither of those markets are mentioned by this market, so who cares?

Again I ask, what actually shut down? This market doesn’t have the ridiculous clarification that the Marcus market had.

@oh Resolves YES

House Speaker Johnson said: “You’ve got shutdowns and you've got real shutdowns. A shutdown for many hours over Saturday doesn’t actually impact the lives of any human being living on the planet. “

Will all the shutdown markets treat an hours long shutdown that doesn't really have an impact as a shutdown?