Will someone pay their rent using Mana before 2026?
Will someone pay their rent using Mana before 2026?
34
1kṀ4237Dec 31
43%
chance
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To pay at least 1 week of rent using M$.
Related literature: https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/i3/making_beliefs_pay_rent_in_anticipated_experiences/
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If someone reports their paid rent here, I invite them to post a picture or two of the place in reply to this comment.
Does it have to be legally "rent"? Or does any payment for a place to stay count, such as a mortgage payment, airbnb payment, an unofficial agreement with friends/family you life with, etc?
@IsaacKing Thanks for the clarifying question. I suggest as resolution criteria: Any payment deal to actually live somewhere above an equivalent of >10 USD per night.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.