Will Pavel Durov (Telegram founder) be under arrest or otherwise detained at the end of 2024?
156
10kṀ120k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

Resolves to Yes if Pavel Durov is alive and physically detained by any governmental authority, including but not limited to:

- Under arrest (including house arrest).

- Out on bail but prohibited from leaving the country, unless Durov successfully escapes to a different jurisdiction where his freedom is not restricted by the local authorities. [clarified on August 28th]

- Serving a prison or jail sentence.

- Confined within a foreign consulate or diplomatic mission to evade arrest (similar to Julian Assange’s situation).

- In a hospital or medical facility where he is not free to leave due to being under guard or restricted by legal authority.

Resolves to No if Pavel Durov is alive and effectively free, even if:

- There are active arrest warrants against him in one or more countries.

- He is residing or traveling in a jurisdiction where he is not detained or under arrest, despite the existence of such warrants (e.g., living freely in the UAE while wanted by the U.S. or EU).

Resolves to No if Pavel Durov is deceased, regardless of the circumstances surrounding his death.

The market will close on December 31st but resolution might take a few days or weeks in case there’s confusion over what Durov’s status is on December 31st, 2024.

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