This market will resolve to one of the following options:
Durov does not jump bail (or tries but fails)
First country where Durov is confirmed to be hiding.
Unknown / no clear consensus
Resolution Criteria
1. Resolves to "does not jump bail (or tries but fails)" if any of the following is true:
He remains within France continuously until December 31st, 2024. Any part of France counts, including overseas territories like French Guiana.
Durov leaves France but fails to spend at least one continuous week outside the country.
The French government transfers him to another country to stand trial.
French authorities formally allow him to leave France, regardless of whether legal proceedings against him are still ongoing. This includes scenarios like France releasing him as part of a prisoner exchange with Russia.
Durov passes away before he has a chance to leave/escape France, regardless of how this happens.
2. First country where Durov is confirmed to be hiding:
The market will resolve to the first country where Durov seeks refuge or otherwise establishes residence outside of France for at least one continuous week by December 31st, 2024.
Transit stops don't count, only places where Durov intends to stay. If a similar market existed for Snowden back in 2013, it would've resolved to Russia rather than Hong Kong, as Russia was Snowden's final hiding destination.
If Durov stays in multiple countries, the market resolves to the first country where he stays for at least a week, even if he later moves elsewhere.
Later extraditions don't matter. So if he goes back to the UAE with the intention of hiding there but they send him back to France after a few weeks, the market will still resolve to the UAE.
Sources used to resolve the market, in order of priority:
Official statements by the French government
Durov's statements on his social media channels
Official statements by a country where Durov has taken refuge: If neither the French government nor Durov makes a clear statement, an official statement from the government of the country where Durov has sought refuge can be used.
Clear consensus among major media outlets: If no official statements are available from the above sources, the market will rely on a clear consensus among major media outlets to determine Durov's location.
3. Will resolve to unknown if:
No clear information about his location/status is available from the list of sources above.
Multiple reports of equal credibility exist without a clear consensus.