After jumping bail in France, in which country will Pavel Durov (Telegram CEO) hide?
➕
Plus
78
Ṁ17k
Jan 1
92%
Durov does not jump bail (or tries but fails)
0.4%
Unknown / no clear consensus
3%
United Arab Emirates (UAE) or any Gulf nation (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain)
3%
Russia or any ex-Soviet country not in EU: (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan)
0.2%
China (including Hong Kong and Macao)
0.3%
Any country in Asia (includes Turkey; excludes Russia, Gulf nations, China and ex-Soviet countries)
0.2%
Any country in Africa
0.5%
Mexico, Central America, South America or the Caribbean
0.2%
Any country in Europe (excludes Russia, Turkey and ex-Soviet countries)
0.3%
USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand or the Pacific Islands
0.2%
International waters, Antarctica, or any other territory not included in other answers

This market will resolve to one of the following options:

  1. Durov does not jump bail (or tries but fails)

  2. First country where Durov is confirmed to be hiding.

  3. Unknown / no clear consensus

Resolution Criteria

1. Resolves to "does not jump bail (or tries but fails)" if any of the following is true:

  • He remains within France continuously until December 31st, 2024. Any part of France counts, including overseas territories like French Guiana.

  • Durov leaves France but fails to spend at least one continuous week outside the country.

  • The French government transfers him to another country to stand trial.

  • French authorities formally allow him to leave France, regardless of whether legal proceedings against him are still ongoing. This includes scenarios like France releasing him as part of a prisoner exchange with Russia.

  • Durov passes away before he has a chance to leave/escape France, regardless of how this happens.

2. First country where Durov is confirmed to be hiding:

  • The market will resolve to the first country where Durov seeks refuge or otherwise establishes residence outside of France for at least one continuous week by December 31st, 2024.

  • Transit stops don't count, only places where Durov intends to stay. If a similar market existed for Snowden back in 2013, it would've resolved to Russia rather than Hong Kong, as Russia was Snowden's final hiding destination.

  • If Durov stays in multiple countries, the market resolves to the first country where he stays for at least a week, even if he later moves elsewhere.

  • Later extraditions don't matter. So if he goes back to the UAE with the intention of hiding there but they send him back to France after a few weeks, the market will still resolve to the UAE.

Sources used to resolve the market, in order of priority:

  1. Official statements by the French government

  2. Durov's statements on his social media channels

  3. Official statements by a country where Durov has taken refuge: If neither the French government nor Durov makes a clear statement, an official statement from the government of the country where Durov has sought refuge can be used.

  4. Clear consensus among major media outlets: If no official statements are available from the above sources, the market will rely on a clear consensus among major media outlets to determine Durov's location.

3. Will resolve to unknown if:

  • No clear information about his location/status is available from the list of sources above.

  • Multiple reports of equal credibility exist without a clear consensus.

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Ṁ1,000
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bought Ṁ250 Russia or any ex-Sov... NO

Russia is impossible to imagine. Would be disaster for Telegram; basically guarantees sanctions.

bought Ṁ1 International waters... YES
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